ARTICLE TITLE: The Mechanisms of Cycles in Politics and Economics: The General Model
ABSTRACT: Cyclical dynamics in history is treated as synchronized wavelike change of several variables. These variables are (quasi)quantitative aspects of qualities of some social entity: civilization, world-system, society, national politics, economy or culture. The functional model suggested by A. Stinchcombe is used as a basic scheme of dynamic relationship. The main part of historical cycles are considered and explained by means of this apparatus: crises of decline and destruction, achievement of the "bottom" and restoration after the fall, a rapid growth, stop by the "ceiling" and stabilization, forks in the cyclic dynamics. It is shown how this complexity is generated by various extensions and modifications of the basic model. Well-known economic cycles are partial variations of a general cyclic dynamics model.
KEYWORDS: historical cycles , cyclical dynamics , economic cycles , political cycles , the relationship between variables , social stability , crisis , rise and fall